Changing Tides: Strategic and Geo-Political Shifts in Central America

Changing Tides: Strategic and Geo-Political Shifts in Central America 

Johns Hopkins SAIS Latin America Studies Initiative (LASI), Tulane University, University of Oklahoma

Last year's Central America in the Changing Global Order recognized how a more multipolar order has recast the region's geostrategic relevance. This year's symposium builds on that inaugural conversation, examining how geopolitical trends – intensifying great-power competition and democratic strain – unfold across different geographies: Panama's strategic balancing act, authoritarian entrenchment in Nicaragua and Cuba, democracy under pressure in El Salvador and Guatemala, and the region's role as a hemispheric security crossroads.

This one-day symposium will convene policymakers, scholars, and regional experts to examine how countries across Central America are adapting to these changing dynamics, incorporating perspectives from the U.S. and Central America itself. Through four thematic panels and a keynote address, participants will assess the opportunities, risks, and policy implications for the region over the coming years. 
 

9:45–10:45 AM | Panel I

Navigating Great Power Competition & Trade Security: A Panama Case Study

Panama has become one of the clearest examples of strategic competition in the Western Hemisphere. This panel will examine how Panama has managed its relationship with the Trump administration, recalibrated its engagement with China, and positioned itself as a critical partner of the United States while safeguarding its own national interests.
 

10:45–11:00 AM | Coffee Break

11:00 AM–12:00 PM | Panel II 

Authoritarianism and Extra-Regional Powers: The Future of Nicaragua and Cuba

As Washington adopts a more assertive approach toward authoritarian governments, Nicaragua and Cuba face increasing diplomatic and economic pressure. At the same time, Russia’s ties to both countries raise pressing questions about its extra-regional influence in the hemisphere. These dynamics are not solely a function of U.S. policy but also reflect the strategic choices of the regimes themselves, the responses of neighboring states, and the growing involvement of extra-regional actors. This panel will examine how U.S. policy towards these rogue states may evolve over the next several years, regime resilience, and the impact on regional investment.
 

12:00–1:30 PM | Lunch

1:30 – 2:30 PM | Keynote

Changing Tides: The Future of Central America 

A regional leader provides an overview of how shifting geopolitical, economic, and security trends are reshaping Central America’s place in the hemisphere and the global order. The keynote will consider how great-power competition, democratic pressures, changing trade and investment patterns, migration, and evolving security challenges are redefining relationships within the region and with the United States, and what these changes may mean for Central America in the years ahead.
 

2:30–2:45 PM    | Coffee Break

2:45–3:45 PM | Panel III

Democratic Governance in Transition: Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala

Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala illustrate sharply different trajectories for democratic governance in Central America. In the wake of recent elections and political transitions, this panel will examine the resilience of democratic institutions, the concentration and transfer of political power, pressures on checks and balances, and the extent to which elections are producing meaningful political change. Together, these four cases offer a window into both the durability and fragility of democratic governance across the region.
 

3:45–4:00 PM    | Coffee Break

4:00–5:00 PM | Panel IV

The Shield of the Americas: Defending the Strategic Crossroads

Central America occupies a vital strategic position linking North and South America and connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This panel will examine the subregion’s role in hemispheric security, addressing issues such as maritime security, the Panama Canal, migration, transnational organized crime, critical infrastructure, and increasing competition from extra-hemispheric powers.
 

Timeline:

9:30–9:45 AM                  Intro Remarks
9:45–10:45 AM                Panel 1
10:45–11:00 AM               Coffee Break
11:00 AM–12:00 PM         Panel 2
12:00–1:30 PM                 Lunch
1:30–2:30 PM                   Keynote
2:30–2:45 PM                  Coffee Break
2:45–3:45 PM                  Panel 3
3:45–4:00 PM                  Coffee Break
4:00–5:00 PM                  Panel 4